Inequity of Results - Not All Results are Born Equal
In the realm of decision making, a cognitive bias known as Outcome Bias can often cloud our judgement. This bias causes individuals to evaluate their decisions based on the results, rather than the quality of the process itself.
First identified in a paper by Baron and Hershey in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, titled "Outcome bias in decision evaluation," this bias is particularly prevalent among poor managers who rely heavily on gut instinct, disregarding their team's advice. They consider a process to be good if it results in a positive outcome, which can lead to repeating poor decision-making.
However, it's important to note that Outcome Bias is not limited to the realm of business. It can affect clinical decision-making in healthcare and even influence ethical decision-making. For instance, individuals who have not had a drunk driving accident are more likely to repeat the action if the outcome was positive, disregarding the inherent dangers and the flawed decision-making process.
To overcome Outcome Bias, there are several strategies that decision makers can adopt.
First, separating the decision from the outcome is crucial. Focus on evaluating the quality of the decision made at the time it was made, not just the eventual result. Outcomes can be influenced by factors beyond your control, such as randomness or other people’s choices.
Second, using a systematic decision-making process can help. Follow structured steps like identifying the problem, gathering information, analyzing alternatives, choosing, and reviewing decisions based on the decision quality rather than the outcome alone. This helps recognize and reduce biases, including Outcome Bias.
Third, increasing awareness of cognitive biases is essential. Recognize that Outcome Bias is a cognitive bias that distorts objective assessment by rewarding or punishing based on outcomes rather than decision quality. Awareness enables critical reflection and more objective evaluation of decisions.
Fourth, adopting a robust mindset with willpower can help resist the tendency to rewrite history according to desirable or undesirable results. Being deliberate and committed to judging decisions based on their process rather than just outcomes is key.
Lastly, using decision criteria independent of results is also beneficial. Define explicit, outcome-independent criteria for decision quality before acting and use those to assess decisions afterward, rather than relying on whether the results turned out well.
By implementing these approaches, decision makers can maintain objectivity, improve decision quality, and reduce the distortion that Outcome Bias imposes on evaluating their choices.
For more in-depth information on biases in a UX context, consider checking out the Man with No Blog. Working with a coach can also be beneficial in tackling Outcome Bias and addressing it in future decision-making processes.
Informed decision-making gives a much higher chance of a successful outcome compared to decision-making based on gut feelings or in haste. So, let's strive to make well-informed, objective decisions, and leave Outcome Bias behind.
UI designers can benefit from recognizing Outcome Bias as a cognitive bias that may impact their decision-making process. Awareness enables critical reflection and more objective evaluation of design choices, such as prioritizing user needs or emphasizing accessibility, rather than solely relying on subjective assessments based on user feedback.
Effective strategies for UI designers to overcome Outcome Bias include setting explicit design criteria independent of user feedback and measuring design quality based on those criteria. Additionally, using a systematic design process like user research, prototyping, user testing, and iterative refinement can help reduce the influence of Outcome Bias and lead to well-informed, objective design decisions.
