Mercedes roars back as 2026 F1 favorites—but Wolff stays wary
Mercedes has entered the 2026 Formula 1 season as the team to beat, according to analysts and betting firms. Their strong pre-season performance, including George Russell's second-fastest lap and Kimi Antonelli matching Lewis Hamilton's pace, has raised expectations. Yet team principal Toto Wolff remains cautious about declaring outright dominance.
Mercedes once ruled Formula 1 with an iron grip. Between 2014 and 2021, they secured eight straight Constructors' Championships and seven Drivers' titles—six with Hamilton and one with Max Verstappen. Their 103 race wins in that period dwarfed rivals like Ferrari and Red Bull, who managed just three victories combined. But Red Bull took over from 2022, winning four Constructors' crowns and three Drivers' titles with Verstappen.
The 2026 season brings new rules, including cars 30 kilograms lighter than before. Mercedes' new power unit has already shown promise, completing over 1,000 kilometres in pre-season without major issues. Despite this, Wolff downplays talk of an easy return to the top. He points to unknowns like Verstappen's form, rivals' long-run data, and how weather or track conditions could shift the balance.
Wolff also dismissed concerns that Mercedes' customer teams, such as Williams, might struggle with weight issues. While betting agencies and even AI models like ChatGPT tip Mercedes as favourites, the team boss insists nothing is certain yet.
Mercedes' early pace has put them in the spotlight, but Wolff's caution reflects the unpredictability of Formula 1. The lighter 2026 cars and untested race conditions mean the season's outcome remains wide open. For now, the team's focus stays on performance rather than predictions.
