Waist Size Beats BMI as Top Predictor of Heart Attack Risk in Women
Carrying extra weight can seriously harm heart health, even in small amounts. But new research shows that where fat sits on the body matters just as much as overall weight. A study in the Journal of the American Heart Association found that waist size predicts heart attack risk better than BMI, especially for women.
For years, body mass index (BMI) has been the standard way to measure health risk. It works well for most people, but it has flaws. Athletes may appear at higher risk due to muscle weight, while older adults might seem healthier than they are. Fat stored around the waist is far more dangerous than fat elsewhere, as it releases hormones and chemicals that trigger inflammation—a key factor in diseases like diabetes and heart disease.
Jennifer L. Petersen’s study tracked over 29,000 adults for 15 years. The results were clear: waist circumference was a stronger predictor of heart attacks in women than BMI. A waist measuring over 35 inches for women or 40 inches for men (or 31 inches for South Asian, Chinese, or Japanese women and 35 inches for men) raised the risk significantly. Even more precise were waist-to-hip and waist-to-height ratios, which gave an even sharper picture of health dangers. The findings highlight a critical point—being a ‘healthy weight’ on the scales doesn’t always mean low risk. Fat that gathers around organs, rather than under the skin, poses the greatest threat. Losing even a small amount of weight can improve heart health, but focusing on waist size may offer a clearer warning sign than BMI alone.
The research confirms that body shape plays a vital role in assessing health risks. Waist measurements, particularly waist-to-height ratios, now stand as a more reliable tool than BMI for predicting heart attacks. Doctors and patients alike may need to look beyond weight alone to better protect long-term health.
